Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, September 26th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic data. Stocks are showing early losses, pushing the Dow lower by 214 points and the Nasdaq down 144 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (4.51%), but weakness late yesterday is going to keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Monday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 4.51%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Consumer Confidence Index

This week’s calendar began today with two late morning economic reports. The Conference Board announced their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September stood at 103.0, down from August’s revised 108.7, meaning surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations last month than this month. Waning confidence is good news for rates because it usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers.



New Home Sales

August’s New Home Sales report showed an 8.5% decline in purchases of newly constructed homes. This was a larger decline than was expected but was skewed by an upward revision to July’s sales. As a sign of housing sector weakness, we can label the report good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this particular report doesn’t carry a high level of importance, limiting its impact on today’s trading.



Durable Goods Orders

Tomorrow has August's Durable Goods Orders scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. This report indicates manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Big-ticket products are items that are expected to last three or more years such as airplanes, electronics and appliances. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% decline in new orders, pointing towards slight weakness in the manufacturing sector. A larger decline should help boost bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop because signs of economic weakness make longer-term securities more appealing to investors. However, an unexpected increase in new orders will likely help push mortgage rates higher. It is worth noting that this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so a small variance from forecasts may not affect mortgage pricing like it would in other reports.



Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We also have the first of this week's two potentially influential Treasury auctions taking place tomorrow. The Treasury will sell 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes Thursday. They will tell us if there is an appetite in the markets for medium-term securities. If investor demand in these sales is strong, particularly from international buyers, the broader bond market should move higher, pushing mortgage rates lower. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. The results of the sales will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction will come during afternoon trading tomorrow and/or Thursday.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Frangadakis Corp