Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, April 22th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected housing data and early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses of 65 points in the Dow and 12 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (2.58%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to rise approximately .125 of a discount point from Thursday’s early levels. The bond and mortgage markets were closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

6/32

Bonds

30 yr - 2.58%

65

Dow

26,494

12

NASDAQ

7,985

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The National Association of Realtors announced at 10:00 AM ET this morning that home resales fell 4.9% last month. This was a larger decline than expected, meaning the housing sector was a bit softer last month than many had thought. That is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions. Unfortunately, it does not carry enough significance to offset the overnight weakness that carried into this morning’s trading.

Medium

Unknown

None

The rest of the week brings us the release of four more monthly and quarterly economic reports that may affect mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. One of those reports is considered to be extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets and can cause a great deal of volatility. The week's calendar, along with corporate earnings reports, makes it very likely that this will be an active week for mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

March’s New Home Sales report will be posted tomorrow morning. This Commerce Department report tracks a much smaller portion of all home sales than today’s report does. It also gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts I am not expecting the data to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are also forecasting a decline in sales of newly constructed homes. Good news for mortgage rates would be a sizable drop in sales.

---

Unknown

None

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week due mostly to the release of two reports, including the highly important initial GDP reading. Thursday may also be one of the more active days due to the Durable Goods Orders report. Wednesday is the best candidate for least important day. Throw in week two of corporate earnings season and we have plenty to watch this week. Accordingly, it is highly recommended that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing in the near future and still floating an interest rate.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.